The base rate for any votes of representatives who are also members of the President's party being for impeachment is 50 % - this happened with Bill Clinton, Donald Trump #2, but not with Donald Trump #1 or Andrew Johnson.

On the other hand, it was never introduced by a member of the President's party (if Nixon went through, 20 %), and barring party switches or deaths, the GOP is guaranteed hold a majority in the 118th House in 2026. This is relevant because I do not see much possibility it's even attempted without bipartisan support.

Anything higher than 30 % is very unrealistic. I can only imagine this if Trump is convicted for a serious crime, which is nigh impossible in the Epstein situation. Or something Nixon-like.

However, I would say at least 5 % is legit. Especially with eg. Trump turning on MTG.

Meowdy! GOP control and Trump’s loyal base lower impeachment chances in ’26. I’ll pounce back on this one later tonight for updates and fresh claws on the data! :3

NO. THE PEOPLE LOVE ME, THE HOUSE LOVES ME, THEY’VE BEEN TELLING ME ALL YEAR THANK YOU MISTER TRUMP, YOURE THE BEST PRESIDENT WE’VE EVER HAD, MUCH BETTER THAN WOKE MIND VIRUS DEMENTIA SLEEPY JOE BIDEN WITH THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP.

Republicans will hold the chamber the entire year. Not gonna happen