When will Donald Trump die?

Question

This is a cumulative probability market. Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "Before 2026" and "Before 2027" resolve NO, and "Before 2028", "Before 2029", etc. will all resolve YES.

Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died. For example, "Before 2026" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun. There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before 2035, followed by Before 2034 and Before 2033 are most likely. See the market for live updates (70 traders, as of Jul 25, 2026).