Is it enough to resolve to YES?

IDF begins sending draft orders to haredim as law expires - report

Hmm I am thinking no. By 2030, lots of progress and some sects have full service except for a few top students, and some kind of national service for the rest, but probably not quite at 1/2. By 2040 I think yes. Put it this way, I expect the number of draft exemptions to peak (it has been going up a lot, because 100% of Haredim don't serve) and then to start declining and keep declining, even as Israel's population grows.

I do think it's >50% that there will be fewer draft exemptions among Jewish Israelis than today in absolute numbers, despite the larger population.

I also think we'll see some more attrition from the Haredi community (attrition rate is going up), people will drop out to join the army. So then that won't count.

How does it resolve if Israel allows some (relatively small) fixed number per year to study in the yeshiva, but for the rest to serve? I think that's the most likely.

@nathanwei in the case that most Haredi men have to serve, the question resolves in the affirmative. Not all secular Jewish men serve either due to a host of other causes- so it does not have to be total.

@Wardove Right, I have a hiloni friend who had a back injury and didn't serve. Of course I know this.

So, just >50% serve? How about if they can get out of it by doing "national service"? That doesn't count, right? What if most of them have to serve but not at the same level as Jewish Israelis? Can you be more specific?

@nathanwei Yes, over >50% serve. National Service does not count as conscription. Regardless of level, if over half of all Haredi men eligible for conscription are forced to serve in the IDF for a period on par with other Jewish Israelis (so a period of 24 months at least).

@Wardove So if they have to serve for slightly less time, or there is some kind of deal where they get to spend 6 months in yeshiva but 18 in the IDF, it resolves no?

My current view is that there will definitely be some progress on drafting the Haredim by 2030, but it's not clear if there will be enough to resolve this positive, and some edge case is likely. If this were 2050 or even 2040 then I would pretty confident in yes.

I am hesitant to bet without a lot of clarifications.

@nathanwei I'd like to peg the duration of service to the lowest existing standard, but I'm unaware of circumstances today that would lead to getting drafted for less than 24 months. If you are, please send a source that says so my way.

@Wardove I am not, but my point is that in 2030 it's quite possible for more progress to have been made on the issue, and thus for it not to be fully solved. So I just wanted to make sure what the resolution criteria are. What if Israel increases the 24 months? Or decreases it? Etcetera. Just a lot of stuff that can happen, so I want to be clear.

@nathanwei If we're in a situation where the average duration of service increases/decreases but Haredi men still have to do 24, I'd count it as affirmative as that is the standard today.