This question will be resolved in the affirmative when the Torato Umanuto arrangement, which allows young Haredi men exemption from serving in the IDF or an extremely short service, is cancelled or amended such that Haredi men are required to serve on par with other Jewish Israelis.
1,000
3.00After some mod discussion, I believe this resolves Yes.
The de jure situation has changed. It is unclear if the de facto situation has changed yet.
Language in the description such as "the Torato Umanuto arrangement ... is cancelled or amended" suggests a de jure interpretation.
The title language of "institute" suggests a de facto outcome, but the description clarifies a de jure reading. This is a reasonable level of clarification for a description or comment to make, in general.
The previous clarifying comments seem to be about how to resolve new de jure compromises should those happen; they didn't. Therefore the clarifications are mostly about non-relevant edge cases, though reading them to discern a de jure vs. de facto intent is still reasonable.
There was little to no discussion of de facto criteria (e.g. criteria for counting how many Haredi men are serving).
The "cancelled" wording is a little under specified, but this situation seems to be included.
@Wardove is the resolution criterion only based on the de jure end of Torato Umanuto?
If so then this identical question just resolved yes: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-israel-end-the-military-conscr
If the question is based on some de facto application of Haredi conscription then please make this clear in the description.
See also: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torato_Umanuto
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exemption_from_military_service_in_Israel
Nothing has actually changed. The facts on the ground are still what they always were. For months, even years, there's been this or that announcement of how this time we really mean it, and nothing ever comes of it. Let's see if anything of any significance comes of it this time (my bet is no.)
The question says: "This question will be resolved in the affirmative when the Torato Umanuto arrangement, which allows young Haredi men exemption from serving in the IDF or an extremely short service, is cancelled or amended such that Haredi men are required to serve on par with other Jewish Israelis."
Per Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torato_Umanuto
"In June 2024, the Supreme Court of Israel declared any continued exemption of IDF conscription unlawful and the army began drafting 3,000 Haredi men the following month."
So the arrangement has been "cancelled or amended" and Haredi men are now "required to serve" (whether they do it or not is another question not covered by the resolution criterion).
The status isn't, and has never been, black and white. There has always been a big gap between de facto and de jure, with the facts on the ground being many not serving as a matter of compromise and lack of enforcement.
The supreme court declaring that from now things will be different is meaningless; or maybe it won't be, maybe this time is different. But if things follow the pattern they have historically, this will be just more empty words.
Israel hasn't "institute[d] mandatory conscription for Haredi men". The supreme court has said it must. There is a difference.
When has the IDF before sent draft notices to Haredi men before in the history of the State of Israel?
The Supreme court declaring that from now things will be different is not meaningless. It's the one and only thing that matters for this question. This question is not about actual implementation of Haredi conscription but whether or not the arrangement is "cancelled or amended".
The arrangement has de jure ended. Has it ended de facto? We'll see (although draft notices have already been sent, and that's a de facto change). But does it matter for this question? Not based on the description.
Hmm I am thinking no. By 2030, lots of progress and some sects have full service except for a few top students, and some kind of national service for the rest, but probably not quite at 1/2. By 2040 I think yes. Put it this way, I expect the number of draft exemptions to peak (it has been going up a lot, because 100% of Haredim don't serve) and then to start declining and keep declining, even as Israel's population grows.
I do think it's >50% that there will be fewer draft exemptions among Jewish Israelis than today in absolute numbers, despite the larger population.
I also think we'll see some more attrition from the Haredi community (attrition rate is going up), people will drop out to join the army. So then that won't count.
@nathanwei in the case that most Haredi men have to serve, the question resolves in the affirmative. Not all secular Jewish men serve either due to a host of other causes- so it does not have to be total.
@Wardove Right, I have a hiloni friend who had a back injury and didn't serve. Of course I know this.
So, just >50% serve? How about if they can get out of it by doing "national service"? That doesn't count, right? What if most of them have to serve but not at the same level as Jewish Israelis? Can you be more specific?
@nathanwei Yes, over >50% serve. National Service does not count as conscription. Regardless of level, if over half of all Haredi men eligible for conscription are forced to serve in the IDF for a period on par with other Jewish Israelis (so a period of 24 months at least).
@Wardove So if they have to serve for slightly less time, or there is some kind of deal where they get to spend 6 months in yeshiva but 18 in the IDF, it resolves no?
My current view is that there will definitely be some progress on drafting the Haredim by 2030, but it's not clear if there will be enough to resolve this positive, and some edge case is likely. If this were 2050 or even 2040 then I would pretty confident in yes.
I am hesitant to bet without a lot of clarifications.
@nathanwei I'd like to peg the duration of service to the lowest existing standard, but I'm unaware of circumstances today that would lead to getting drafted for less than 24 months. If you are, please send a source that says so my way.
@Wardove I am not, but my point is that in 2030 it's quite possible for more progress to have been made on the issue, and thus for it not to be fully solved. So I just wanted to make sure what the resolution criteria are. What if Israel increases the 24 months? Or decreases it? Etcetera. Just a lot of stuff that can happen, so I want to be clear.
@nathanwei If we're in a situation where the average duration of service increases/decreases but Haredi men still have to do 24, I'd count it as affirmative as that is the standard today.