Israel has one of the toughest set of rules around military conscription of any country in the world. Most Jewish citizens are eligible for national service, with men serving a minimum of 2 years 8 months and women serving a minimum of 2 years.

Since the founding of Israel, there has been an exemption for ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews on the basis that young, conscription aged members of the community are devoted full time to studying the Torah. The Haredi communities have argued that their religious study is equivalent to military service - they are protecting their fellow citizens spiritually while members of the IDF are protecting them physically.

The exemption has become increasingly controversial over the past few years, especially as the Haredi population has increased. The exemption originally only applied to a few hundred young men, but Haredi Jews now make up over 10% of Israel's population.

Benjamin Netanyahu has proposed a package of measures around conscription. This includes extending the length of conscription and raising the reservist age and it also includes ending the Haredi exemption:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/26/plan-end-ultra-orthodox-students-military-exemption-row-israel

Netanyahu has warned that failing to pass this law will threaten the stability of the coalition government. His coalition is already unsteady, and there is speculation that he could lose his job in the near future (predict that here - /SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep) so this isn't an idle threat!

Will the government pass legislation ending the Haredi/Yeshiva exemption before the next election? Or will the exemptions be weakened/ended by the courts or by any other mechanism?

Any reduction in this exemption will count for the purposes of the market (even if it's a watered down compromise) so long as it is enacted as law or enforced by the courts.

Update 29th March - there are a few contradictory messages coming out from different politicians in Israel so there is a chance that this market will end up being a bit subjective. Please be aware of that before you trade and please read the comments below for context.

I will endeavour to resolve the market in good faith to the spirit of the question and resolve to YES if either of these things happen:

• Netenyahu succeeds in passing legislation which is fundamentally the same as the proposed legislation

• The conscription exemptions are removed or significantly reduced by some other method such as the courts

I don’t believe that the latest Supreme Court ruling meets this criteria, it recognises that the exemption is still in place and blocks funding as a result.

I will not be trading on this market myself.