Resolves YES if at least 10% of formerly exempt Yeshiva guys are recruited to the IDF on a mandatory (i.e. not voluntary) basis in any year.
1,000
3.00@Shump resolves yes if sent to 10% of them? https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-sends-draft-notices-ultra-orthodox-2024-07-21/
Found the answer: https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-to-begin-drafting-3000-haredi-men-starting-sunday-in-three-waves/
"The military said it currently requires some 10,000 new soldiers — mostly combat troops — but can only accommodate the enlistment of an additional 3,000 ultra-Orthodox this year, due to their special needs. These are in addition to some 1,800 Haredi soldiers who are already drafted annually.
The same total number, 4,800, has also been set for next year, but the IDF said it aims to grow the number every year after that. This past year, 63,000 Haredi males were listed as eligible for military service."
So for the question to resolve yes we need 6.3k Haredi "actually in uniform", 4.5k more than today. This is more or less the army's target for next year.
More or less. This market is explicitly about those "recruited to the IDF on a mandatory (i.e. not voluntary) basis", and that article gives the figure of 1800 Haredi men who are already drafted annually under the previous exemption regime, thus voluntarily. So we'd need to discount them, I guess. But that aside, yes, the question is to what extent these targets are actually achieved.
@zzq https://www.timesofisrael.com/angering-coalition-allies-new-defense-chief-katz-okays-7000-more-haredi-draft-orders/
1. Out of the 3k draft orders sent this summer, only 10% men showed up.
2. 7k additional draft orders to be sent
So we're far from 6.3k Haredi "actually in uniform" (TBD whether/how we remove the 1.8k already drafted, but I assume those in the future would just wait to receive their draft order and go to the recruitment center).
But if they send draft orders to all Haredi men, we might get there.
"Following the meeting, Gallant “approved the IDF’s recommendation to issue [draft] orders” to members of the ultra-Orthodox community next month, “in accordance with the [IDF’s] absorption and screening capabilities, and after a significant process of refining the existing data regarding potential recruits is carried out,” the statement said."
If "recruited" means "formally asked to join the IDF" then this question might resolve to YES: IDF begins sending draft orders to haredim as law expires - report
If "recruited" means "actually joins and serves" then we need to wait and see.