Vaidehi Agarwalla's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -8.86
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Vaidehi Agarwalla bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
80%
- Will Adam Gleave pass a Touchstone lead climbing test before March 31st?YESṀ50
- Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2023 be higher than in 2022?NOṀ45
- The EA consensus does not acknowledge the discovery of a "Cause X" or previously unknown "Crucial Consideration" by June 1st 2023YESṀ10
90%
95%