@NathanpmYoung Why was this resolved now?

@toms I believe there wasn't a particular impetus for it being today vs whenever FTX imploded. I think it was just noticed that there's no more ambiguity anymore and so it's nicer to get it resolved sooner than later.

Let's try with $20m:

@kolotom99 Ok, let's try with $5mn then

Biggest trade I've made on Manifold. Could also be the dumbest.

@MartinRandall Holy shit

Thanks for pulling the price down lol, I was wanting to extract my funds but 5% still felt too high

@VivaLaPanda The resigning team says they can't honor existing commitments, the money is tagged as fraudulent, people won't want to take it for reputational reasons. Plus Eliezer's comment below about just calling this NO right now. It could take all of 2023 to sort the mess out.

But people are often over confident at low probabilities, so we'll see if I'm an idiot.

@MartinRandall Likewise unironic thanks for letting me extract my funds before 2024. I do kinda expect this to pay off, just, I hope it's the right decision for you locking-up-funds-wise.

@MartinRandall Higher expected return to spread that across FF related markets for cheaper no shares, no?

https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-the-ftx-future-fund-spend-more
https://manifold.markets/RossRheingansYoo/will-the-future-fund-pay-a-prize-fo-76fd0a37f755
etc.

@MathiasBonde Well, @VivaLaPanda had a big limit yes order that I could buy against on this market, the others weren't quite as liquid.

Also, freeing up Eliezer's mana reserves is the next EA cause area.

Anyone have any objections if this market were to wait another week or two, in case of any unexpected further news or new hopes or market movements, and then wrap early on NO? (Not sure of protocol / etiquette here.)

@EliezerYudkowsky IMO, funders wanting to do a Future Fund-like project would probably start with a different name and angle than FTX Future Fund, even if they directly admit re-submissions of projects that fell through because of FTXFF.

@EliezerYudkowsky I'm in favor of a norm that markets don't resolve until their conditions have actually been met, even if it's pretty obvious that they will be, and I think this is how I've seen markets operate in practice

@EliezerYudkowsky The FF still has loads of money right. To me I sense I'm not clear enough that I want to resolve but that's kind of a gut thing. I am never sure what norms should be (the recent near return of Boris Johnson nearly screwed some markets on Will boris johnson be PM in 2023 iirc)

@EliezerYudkowsky I wouldn't resolve early while the market probability is above 1%. It should go to 0.1% if the market participants are convinced there's no chance of a reversal and you're willing to resolve early if it's that clear.

@NathanpmYoung Will it count as "spend" if they just transfer it to some other entity with a new name?

https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/1590891417433296896?t=4EWED1irusJVtLfjDc_U9g&s=19

Will the FTXFF spend more than $100mn in 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition