Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2023 be higher than in 2022?
22
430Ṁ5098
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

As per https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88, or another data source if this one becomes unreliable.

This is asking about the number of pledges made during that year, not made up until that year.

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It seems like the January 2023 is way behind January 2022. https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88

I believe this will resolve positive, but 90% probability sounded overconfident to me.

@HenriThunberg Tunnel Rush 90% of the people are really confident. Only if the risk ratio is low.

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just to clarify: you mean new pledges, which started in 2022/2023, and not the total number, correct?

predictedYES

@harfe Yes, sorry. The number of pledges taken during that year.

predictedNO

@harfe @IsaacKing + for sake of clarity, can you confirm we're only counting 10% pledges, not 10% + trials?

predictedYES

@HenriThunberg Correct, only the standard pledge.

Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges in 2023 be higher than it was in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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