1

Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2023 be higher than in 2022?

21

closes Dec 31

16%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

As per https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88, or another data source if this one becomes unreliable.

This is asking about the number of pledges made during that year, not made up until that year.

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It seems like the January 2023 is way behind January 2022. https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88

I believe this will resolve positive, but 90% probability sounded overconfident to me.

just to clarify: you mean new pledges, which started in 2022/2023, and not the total number, correct?

@harfe @IsaacKing + for sake of clarity, can you confirm we're only counting 10% pledges, not 10% + trials?

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9 YES payouts

Ṁ52

Ṁ34

Ṁ15

Ṁ12

9 NO payouts

Ṁ445

Ṁ120

Ṁ115

Ṁ77

Ṁ16

Ṁ12

Ṁ12

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Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?77%

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