Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2023 be higher than in 2022?
22
135
430
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

As per https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88, or another data source if this one becomes unreliable.

This is asking about the number of pledges made during that year, not made up until that year.

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I believe this will resolve positive, but 90% probability sounded overconfident to me.

just to clarify: you mean new pledges, which started in 2022/2023, and not the total number, correct?

predicted YES

@harfe Yes, sorry. The number of pledges taken during that year.

predicted NO

@harfe @IsaacKing + for sake of clarity, can you confirm we're only counting 10% pledges, not 10% + trials?

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg Correct, only the standard pledge.

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