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Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2023 be higher than in 2022?
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac
21
closes Dec 31
16%
chance

As per https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88, or another data source if this one becomes unreliable.

This is asking about the number of pledges made during that year, not made up until that year.

Effective Altruism
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DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientistbought Ṁ50 of NO

It seems like the January 2023 is way behind January 2022. https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunbergbought Ṁ20 of NO

I believe this will resolve positive, but 90% probability sounded overconfident to me.

harfe avatar
harfe

just to clarify: you mean new pledges, which started in 2022/2023, and not the total number, correct?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting YES at 85%

@harfe Yes, sorry. The number of pledges taken during that year.

HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunbergis predicting NO at 82%

@harfe @IsaacKing + for sake of clarity, can you confirm we're only counting 10% pledges, not 10% + trials?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting YES at 56%

@HenriThunberg Correct, only the standard pledge.

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges in 2023 be higher than it was in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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