
1
Will the total number of Giving What We Can pledges made in 2023 be higher than in 2022?
21
closes Dec 31
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As per https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88, or another data source if this one becomes unreliable.
This is asking about the number of pledges made during that year, not made up until that year.
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It seems like the January 2023 is way behind January 2022. https://dashboard.effectivealtruism.org/public/question/a8499095-be16-46fe-af1f-e3e56ee04e88
I believe this will resolve positive, but 90% probability sounded overconfident to me.

just to clarify: you mean new pledges, which started in 2022/2023, and not the total number, correct?
@harfe @IsaacKing + for sake of clarity, can you confirm we're only counting 10% pledges, not 10% + trials?

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9 YES payouts
Ṁ52
Ṁ34
Ṁ15
Ṁ12
9 NO payouts
Ṁ445
Ṁ120
Ṁ115
Ṁ77
Ṁ16
Ṁ12
Ṁ12
















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