The EA consensus does not acknowledge the discovery of a "Cause X" or previously unknown "Crucial Consideration" by June 1st 2023

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resolved Jun 14

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves "NO" if any one of - A cause is identified and climbs to 80000hours' top "highest" or "second highest" priorities list https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/ , and at least one commenter (likely discord or EA Forum, but not limited to strictly those two) remarks that it's time between first being discussed and reaching that prioritization status is surprisingly short - A post or comment to the effect "post C unveils a crucial consideration / something which ought to change the direction of significant altruistic pressure" gets more than 70 upvotes on the EA Forum - I see a discord or forum conversation riffing on the pattern "Big EA wants us to care about X / thinks C is a game changer, but here's why I think it's not really cause X / not really crucial" resolves "YES" if none of those happen by June 1st, 2023. I am NOT requiring: - that cause X / crucial consideration C is truly unknown at the time of this market being opened, i.e. it may have been on Nuño's Big List of Cause Candidates for over a year but in relative obscurity - that a thought leader registering their individual opinion is sufficient (I think of 80k's website as more representative of a consensus than the opinions of thought leaders, which I recognize some may disagree about) See: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/crucial-consideration , https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/cause-x

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predicted YES

Please resolve

predicted YES

When will you resolve @Quinn ?

I'm flat. Would bet YES but 70 karma is not too hard to get these days

@ThomasKwa yeah, forum bad / karma cheap. makes me regret that aspect of my resolution criteria.

predicted YES

@Quinn Make another market with modified criteria.

@vluzko doneski https://manifold.markets/Quinn/the-ea-consensus-acknowledges-eithe note i flipped from negative to positive (then bought up a bunch of NO, lmao)

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I’m not sure if this is true but I feel like the second criterion is a lot more likely than the first and doesn’t necessarily indicate EA consensus changing; I get the impression the forum has some “disagree, but good post” upvoting happening

@Siao yep. I said to ThomasKwa that karma is cheap and that I regret making the resolution criteria that easy.

I basically think "EA Forum Consensus" even I had a better karma threshold is not representative of actual EA consensus, and this is basically good because the forum doesn't seem to attract the best EAs at least not anymore haha.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

(Haha took me a second to parse because of the negative in the title. I feel like maybe we should have a style guide that says "avoid negatives", kinda like writing boolean operators in code lol) I'm partial to arguments that Cause X is unlikely; we've had a lot of time to think and a lot of smart people thinking about it.