Will the effective altruism movement suffer from serious, high-profile damage to its reputation within the next year (by May 18 2023)?

121

2.1kṀ15k

resolved Nov 11

Resolved

YES

ALL

The effective altruism (EA) movement is gathering momentum in the public eye, which will bring both extra scrutiny and extra conflict. This question is not necessarily about scandals alone, but rather is intended to get at whether something will happen that could contribute to lots of people (who might’ve otherwise been neutral or EA-sympathetic) not wanting to publicly associate with EA. “Serious” means that the precipitating event is very important and has long-term ramifications beyond a small circle; ie charges of corruption would count but a standard social media spat would not. “Serious” also includes attacks on EA as a movement or on its fundamentals, so if there’s no specific unethical event, but there’s a large, sustained public backlash against EA within the next year anyway, this will resolve as YES. (I don’t have solid criteria for what counts as large & sustained but am happy for bettors to persuade me.) “High-profile” means publicized in major outlets not explicitly affiliated with EA, so any standard news source but not, eg, the EA Forum or popular newsletters by EA writers. So for clarity, examples of what counts and would lead me to resolve the market as YES: - An EA organization or EA public figure is credibly accused of serious misconduct, and this story plays out in a mainstream media outlet. - EA becomes widely castigated by mainstream outlets and other public thought leaders *even if community members don’t agree with the assessment*. Doesn’t count: - Two key figures in the EA movement get into a mud-slinging match on Twitter with each other and a mainstream outlet writes about it for the drama. - An EA organization or public figure is credibly accused of serious misconduct, but the discussion is limited to EA circles. - Public intellectuals criticize the EA movement but the discussion is pretty academic and stays limited to EA and academic circles.

Culture

Effective Altruism

Get

1,000

to start trading!