Will resolve YES if Israel(under its flag) participates in the first publicly broadcasted Eurovision competition(semi-final or final of said competition) in 2026. The EBU has to give a live feed of the Israeli act.
Will resolve NO if there is no Eurovision in 2026 or if a Israeli participates, but not under the Israeli flag or if there is a Eurovision final in 2026 without Israeli participation in the semi-final or final.
1,000As I understand the voting,
- The question will be something like “shall Israel be suspended”?
- A majority of members is required: Yes votes should be more than No + Abstentions
I expect Yes (suspend Israel) might be higher than No (accept Israel). But I also expect at least 5-10 of the still undecided broadcasters will opt for abstention.
In this site they summarize expected vote for each country:
https://eurovisionfun.com/en/2025/09/eurovision-2026-what-the-trends-show-ahead-of-the-ebus-general-assembly-vote-on-israels-participation/
@Transparent if you have a look to the list above, what major disagreements do you find compared to your expectations?
I guess most of you are already aware, but just in case:
The November voting session was cancelled.
STATEMENT FROM EBU
Due to recent developments in the Middle East, the EBU’s Executive Board agrees that there is a clear need for an open and in-person discussion among members concerning the issue of participation in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.
Therefore, the matter has been added to the agenda of the regular winter General Assembly, scheduled for December, instead of an extraordinary session beforehand.
EBU cancels extraordinary vote on Israel’s Eurovision participation
Related market:
First major international competition to ban Israel
https://manifold.markets/MiguelLM/first-major-international-competiti