Will resolve YES if Israel(under its flag) participates in the first publicly broadcasted Eurovision competition(semi-final or final of said competition) in 2026. The EBU has to give a live feed of the Israeli act.
Will resolve NO if there is no Eurovision in 2026 or if a Israeli participates, but not under the Israeli flag or if there is a Eurovision final in 2026 without Israeli participation in the semi-final or final.
1,000As I understand the voting,
- The question will be something like “shall Israel be suspended”?
- A majority of members is required: Yes votes should be more than No + Abstentions
I expect Yes (suspend Israel) might be higher than No (accept Israel). But I also expect at least 5-10 of the still undecided broadcasters will opt for abstention.
In this site they summarize expected vote for each country:
https://eurovisionfun.com/en/2025/09/eurovision-2026-what-the-trends-show-ahead-of-the-ebus-general-assembly-vote-on-israels-participation/
@Transparent if you have a look to the list above, what major disagreements do you find compared to your expectations?
Related market:
First major international competition to ban Israel
https://manifold.markets/MiguelLM/first-major-international-competiti