Resolution criteria

• Resolves to the first option whose governing body publishes an official decision that bans Israel from participating

  Valid options

  • UEFA–FIFA: FIFA or UEFA suspends the Israel Football Association or explicitly bars Israeli national teams/clubs from FIFA/UEFA competitions.

  • EBU Eurovision: EBU/Eurovision announces Israel (KAN) is ineligible/excluded from the Eurovision Song Contest.

  • Cycling Grand Tours Israeli team Israel–Premier Tech is not invited to any of these races: Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, Vuelta a España and the race organizers make a public statement about the exclusion being specifically related to Israel’s national status or political situation.

  • No ban by listed organizations before 2027: If no qualifying ban is announced by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, this option resolves Yes; all others resolve No.

  • Any other competition not explicitly listed as an option will not be considered for this market.

Background

As of September 24, 2025, none of these bodies has announced a ban on Israel.

• UEFA has shifted Israeli matches to neutral venues but did not ban participation. UN experts call for suspension of Israel from international football amid unfolding genocide in occupied Palestine.

• EBU allowed Israel to compete at Eurovision 2024 and 2025. Several EBU broadcasters asked to reconsider the participation of Israel in 2026 but a decision has not been made.

• Cycling races (Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, Vuelta a España) include the Israeli team Israel–Premier Tech, which has been targeted by boycott campaigns. Several stages of La Vuelta a España 2025 had been affected by the boycott.

FIne-print

• Time judged by the timestamp on the official announcement (UTC). If two are on the same date, earliest timestamp wins; if identical, the one whose ban takes effect first wins.

• Security-driven relocations/closed‑door matches doesn't count as ban.

• Temporary sanctions or restrictions on individuals (e.g., due to doping, visas, or unrelated disciplinary actions) do not count unless they are explicitly tied to Israel’s national participation.