Resolution criteria
Resolves to the first of the listed option whose governing body publishes an official decision that bans Israel from participating
Valid options
UEFA–FIFA: FIFA or UEFA suspends the Israel Football Association or explicitly bars Israeli national teams/clubs from FIFA/UEFA competitions.
EBU Eurovision: EBU/Eurovision announces Israel (KAN) is ineligible/excluded from the Eurovision Song Contest.
Cycling Grand Tours Israeli team Israel–Premier Tech is not invited to any of these races: Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, Vuelta a España and the race organizers make a public statement about the exclusion being specifically related to Israel’s national status or political situation.
No ban by listed organizations before 2027: If no qualifying ban is announced by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, this option resolves Yes; all others resolve No.
Any other competition not explicitly listed as an option will not be considered for this market.
Background
As of September 24, 2025, none of these bodies has announced a ban on Israel.
UEFA has shifted Israeli matches to neutral venues but did not ban participation. UN experts call for suspension of Israel from international football amid unfolding genocide in occupied Palestine.
EBU allowed Israel to compete at Eurovision 2024 and 2025. Several EBU broadcasters asked to reconsider the participation of Israel in 2026 but a decision has not been made.
Cycling races (Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, Vuelta a España) include the Israeli team Israel–Premier Tech, which has been targeted by boycott campaigns. Several stages of La Vuelta a España 2025 had been affected by the boycott.
FIne-print
Time judged by the timestamp on the official announcement (UTC). If two are on the same date, earliest timestamp wins; if identical, the one whose ban takes effect first wins.
Security-driven relocations/closed‑door matches doesn't count as ban.
Temporary sanctions or restrictions on individuals (e.g., due to doping, visas, or unrelated disciplinary actions) do not count unless they are explicitly tied to Israel’s national participation.
Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that only the competitions explicitly listed in the options will be considered for resolution, despite other competitions (such as World Artistic Gymnastics Championships, Muaythai federation, and Pontevedra triathlon) having already announced bans or restrictions on Israel.
Any bans by unlisted competitions will not affect this market's resolution
The market will resolve to "No ban by listed organizations before 2027" if none of the specifically listed organizations (UEFA–FIFA, EBU Eurovision, or Cycling Grand Tours) announce a qualifying ban by the deadline
1,000People are also trading
Pressure by ICO to anyone who tries to follow the steps of Indonesia:
Olympic Committee seeks ban on sporting events in Indonesia after exclusion of Israeli athletes
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/olympic-committee-seeks-ban-on-sporting-events-in-indonesia-after-exclusion-of-israeli-athletes/
Apparently the right answer is the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships.
@someoneR5c8l thanks for the information!
Actually, I heard of two earlier announcements:
Muaythai federation in July (Jerusalem Post)
Pontevedra (a city in Spain) announcing in September they will not accept Israel flags. They host one of the races of triathlon world series
We may have others that I’m not aware of, but there are not many yet, and not very popular
@someoneR5c8l When I created the market I was unsure whether to keep the door open to any competition or to forecast only a restricted list. I decided to go for a restricted list when I realized there were already competitions (such as Muaythai) with low media coverage that already had vetoed Israel.
I’m not sure if this was the best decision or not, but I will keep the original resolution criteria for consistency.
We will be limited to the options offered:
"No ban by listed organizations before 2027: If no qualifying ban is announced by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, this option resolves Yes; all others resolve No.
Any other competition not explicitly listed as an option will not be considered for this market."
I hope the original resolution criteria was understood and I didn't confuse anyone. If this was the case, my apologies for the lack of clarity.
@someoneR5c8l great! glad to read.
Let's see what happens with the listed competitions. It seems the traders are quite convinced that "no veto" is the most likely outcome. I tend to think the same, as of today and conditional to what happens with ongoing peace plans.
This is not on the radar of FIFA at all
https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2025/10/9/world-cup-2026-qualifiers-why-fifa-wont-ban-israel-despite-gaza-genocide
For UEFA I see it also quite unlikely after the peace plan deal.
The former Israel-Premier Tech cycling team is no longer owned by an Israeli and "Israel" is no longer in the name. I don't think there are other Israel cycling teams that may be banned.
https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/moving-away-from-its-current-israeli-identity-israel-premier-tech-to-change-name-and-rebrand-for-2026-with-owner-sylvan-adams-stepping-back/
@Samaritan thanks! This was also my expectation, but I hadnt read any news about it yet.
Other market with a question similar to this choice:
https://manifold.markets/someoneR5c8l/ebu-bars-israel-from-eurovision-202