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MANIFOLD
Will Israel hold an election in 2027?
2
Ṁ1kṀ105
2027
45%
chance

This market resolves to YES if Israel holds a nationwide legislative election to elect members of the Knesset (parliament) on any date from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027, inclusive.

Israel's next legislative election is scheduled to be held by October 27, 2026. However, Israel's political landscape is highly volatile, frequently characterized by early coalition dissolutions and snap elections. For this market to resolve YES, the scheduled 2026 election would need to be delayed into 2027, or a newly formed government would need to collapse shortly after taking power, triggering a subsequent election in 2027. If elections occur in 2026 as scheduled and no further Knesset election is held in 2027, this market will resolve NO.

Market context
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