Israel enters into a new war in 2026?
7
1kṀ463Dec 31
34%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Declared wars resolve YES.
Major operations that are not official declared resolve partial at 50%. Examples of past conflicts that, if they'd started in 2026, would count: Six-Day War, First (1982) Lebanon War, Operation Protective Edge (2014). I will use my best judgment as to what counts as a major operation. If it feels like an edge case, I'll resolve somewhere between 0% and 50%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Israel attacks Iran by January 31st, 2026
44% chance
Will Israel exist at the end of 2026?
98% chance
Israel holds free and fair election in 2026?
86% chance
Israel wins Eurovision 2026?
6% chance
Israel participates in Eurovision 2026?
98% chance
What country will Israel invade in 2027?
Will Israel attack Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, or Jordan in 2026?
Will Israel still exist at the beginning of 2032?
96% chance