Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
16
Ṁ1kṀ6.6kresolved Jan 11
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Criteria for Resolution:
1. Developed Country:
- A country classified as "developed" by reputable international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, or United Nations.
2. Establishment of Limit:
- The government of the developed country must officially establish and enforce a limit on the computational resources (compute) that can be used for AI training. The limit must be at least nation-wide.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ212 | |
| 2 | Ṁ202 | |
| 3 | Ṁ120 | |
| 4 | Ṁ83 | |
| 5 | Ṁ58 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
15% chance
By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?
20% chance
Will a country ban advanced AI systems before 2027?
12% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026
10% chance
Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
26% chance
China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030
14% chance
Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
18% chance
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
78% chance
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
18% chance
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
44% chance