Limits on AI model size by 2026?
20
Ṁ1kṀ9.1kresolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By 1 Jan 2026, will at least three top AI labs worldwide be party a voluntary agreement or bound by a law that limits AI model sizes in some way? Here size could be number of parameters, amount of data or FLOPS used in training.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ412 | |
| 2 | Ṁ73 | |
| 3 | Ṁ51 | |
| 4 | Ṁ24 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
People are also trading
Related questions
September 2026 AI model releases
September 2026 AI model releases
Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
68% chance
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
20% chance
Will xAI have an AI model restricted from public use in 2026?
9% chance
Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?
91% chance
Will the UK pass legislation that imposes binding rules on the most powerful AI models being developed, before 2027?
61% chance
Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026?
74% chance
Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027
81% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
11% chance