Will there be a story with >1500 points on the hacker news front page in the next week?
Technology•Internet•Personal Goals•Fun
37
237
Ṁ710
resolved Aug 17
Resolved
YES

These are usually relatively big things

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

Resolves YES @Thomas42

predicted YES
bought Ṁ5 of YES

1485

bought Ṁ200 of YES

1430 now.

Getting very close, current top story is at 1410.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Using the hn algolia api I found the average rate of occurrence was 1.2/week (over the last year). Modelling this as a poisson distribution with lambda = 1.2 and k = 0, we get a 30% chance of there being no such post.

predicted YES

@SimonBerens if you have the data already, can you check the coefficient of variation? I suspect the data is maybe a bit bursty, not purely poissonian?

predicted YES

@Thomas42 Variance was ~1

bought Ṁ10 of YES

There have been 3 of these in the past week!

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