Will I lose weight today? May 2024 edition
Personal GoalsWeightUnranked
Mini
11
Ṁ12k
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO
May 1
Resolved
NO
May 2
Resolved
YES
May 3
Resolved
YES
May 4
Resolved
YES
May 5
Resolved
YES
May 6
Resolved
NO
May 7
Resolved
NO
May 8
Resolved
YES
May 9
Resolved
NO
May 10
Resolved
YES
May 11
Resolved
NO
May 12
Resolved
YES
May 13
Resolved
50%
May 14
Resolved
50%
May 15
Resolved
NO
May 16
Resolved
YES
May 17
Resolved
YES
May 18
Resolved
50%
May 19
Resolved
YES
May 20

I will record my weight at a consistent time every day and post the results below. Resolves YES if this number decreases by any amount compared to the previous day and NO otherwise. If I miss a recording a day, I will resolve that day N/A and compare to the most recent measurement when resolving future dates. If the N/A option is removed, I will resolve 50%.

April 30: 222.4

May 1: 223.1

May 2: 223.8

May 3: 223.5

May 4: 223.1

May 5: 222.0

May 6: 221.6

May 7: 222.0

May 8: 222.0

May 9: 220.5

May 10: 222.7

May 11: 222.2

May 12: 223.3

May 13: 221.1

May 14: N/A

May 15: N/A

May 16: 223.5

May 17: 222.9

May 18: 222.7

May 19: N/A

May 20: 222.0

May 21: 221.6

May 22: 222.4

May 23: 222.4

May 24: 220.5

May 25: 220.5

May 26: N/A

May 27: N/A

May 28: 221.1

May 29: N/A

May 30: N/A

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bought Ṁ6 May 11 NO

This feels like a coinflip market tbqh. I'll set some limit orders, but won't really bet.

Instead of resolving based on a fair coin flip, perhaps resolving as 50/50 or the current market price or rolling two d10s to get a percentage may be more fair?

@Manifest Good point, I have changed the description.

sold Ṁ5 May 2 NO

In April you lost weight 11 out of 25 times so I'm going off of that

@duck_master That’s a good prior. Hopefully I can be more consistent this month!

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