Will I lose weight today? May 2024 edition
11
140
1k
Jun 1
34%
May 19
34%
May 20
40%
May 21
34%
May 22
34%
May 23
40%
May 24
34%
May 25
34%
May 26
34%
May 27
34%
May 28
34%
May 29
34%
May 30
40%
May 31

I will record my weight at a consistent time every day and post the results below. Resolves YES if this number decreases by any amount compared to the previous day and NO otherwise. If I miss a recording a day, I will resolve that day N/A and compare to the most recent measurement when resolving future dates. If the N/A option is removed, I will resolve 50%.

April 30: 222.4

May 1: 223.1

May 2: 223.8

May 3: 223.5

May 4: 223.1

May 5: 222.0

May 6: 221.6

May 7: 222.0

May 8: 222.0

May 9: 220.5

May 10: 222.7

May 11: 222.2

May 12: 223.3

May 13: 221.1

May 14: N/A

May 15: N/A

May 16: 223.5

May 17: 222.9

May 18: 222.7

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bought Ṁ6 Answer #e68f8949c05a NO

This feels like a coinflip market tbqh. I'll set some limit orders, but won't really bet.

Instead of resolving based on a fair coin flip, perhaps resolving as 50/50 or the current market price or rolling two d10s to get a percentage may be more fair?

@Manifest Good point, I have changed the description.

sold Ṁ5 May 2 NO

In April you lost weight 11 out of 25 times so I'm going off of that

@duck_master That’s a good prior. Hopefully I can be more consistent this month!