https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324
Clarifications:
This market resolves Yes if a new standalone search engine product is announced, whether free or paid. This market is not about the release date of such a product.
"A mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access" would not count for the purposes of this market. The product should emphasize web search as its primary feature; it should not just be a secondary feature of OpenAI's current ChatGPT / GPT-4 product.
Apologies for ambiguities in wording. I have updated the title for clarity.
Update:
See related question on if a search product will be released
https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet-0e9608ec5137
See the following question regarding search capabilities integrated into ChatGPT/GPT-4, not necessarily a standalone product:
https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-improved-search-capabilities-b?r=RWxsaXM
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@PeterBarnett To be fair, he said "not a search engine", but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be a competitor to Perplexity / Google.
@Ellis if it was a change to ChatGPT that they were marketing as something you would do instead of Googling something, would that count? Like something that relied on Bing to search but did all of the synthesis / research for you so you don't need to search? Seems like that would be a "competitor" to Google.
@ChrisPrichard I think it is unfair to redefine this market after my earlier clarification, where I stated it must be a "standalone search engine product."
I've created another market in line with your question that does not require a standalone search product:
https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-improved-search-capabilities-b?r=RWxsaXM
Can we get clarification on whether a mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access counts as releasing a search competitor for the sake of this market?
I would have said no, since that already happened a year ago with Browse with Bing, but people seem to be trading as if such a thing would count.
@Greyhawk I wouldn't have even called this an assumption; the words have completely different meanings.
@ForTruth apologies for the wording ambiguities. by "release," I meant "announce." I agree they have different meanings, and I have updated the title accordingly.
@Ellis I find that update frustrating. It has become more commonplace with these AI products to be demoed before they are released - it seems plausible that the probability they announce is different than the probability that it is released.
It feels like a better route for when the title was messed up would be to create a new market on if it would be released, rather than changing the definition of the market after people had been betting on the old definition.
Doesn't feel like there's much ambiguity between released and announced.
@ChrisPrichard
> It feels like a better route for when the title was messed up would be to create a new market on if it would be released
ok here is a new market for if they will release such a product, as you suggest.
https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet-0e9608ec5137?r=RWxsaXM
or did you mean to make a new market about if they will announce and make the same slip up you are complaining about? :)
@T38f3 isn't this the guy who predicted chat gpt 4.5 for end of December?