Will I hit my weight goal before my trip?
31
900
490
May 17
70%
chance

This resolves YES if I measure my weight at 160.0 lbs or less on May 16th 2024 ET, otherwise NO.

5'7" and 186.4 lbs at time of posting. I will only buy YES and I will not sell my position.


At time of posting (Jan 30) I weigh 186.4. My scale displays in 0.2 lbs increments.

I just got a body fat caliper and measured at 30.4%BF, meaning 160 lbs would be about 19%BF. I don't know how accurate my reading was but 30% seems right, visually.

I started logging my weight when I tried to do this for my last trip (Jan 2-18) but failed midway and gained most of it back. This market only resolves based on the last day so I need to keep it off.

I want to lose this weight so I can walk a lot with feet pain and not be as hot throughout the trip, so I will be very disappointed if I don't get pretty close.

I mainly focus on having a large calorie deficit. I hope I will exercise but I'm not sure how consistently I'll do it.

I'm cutting the embed to just this attempt, but the sheet has data back to october and I should be updating it daily. Values with yellow highlighting are interpolated.

Link to Google Sheet

Get Ṁ200 play money
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bought Ṁ50 YES

Doable if you stay comitted, good luck!

first day I forgot to weigh myself in the morning. i'm not putting it in the chart but 169.6 rn

@wan things are both looking good (down 20 pounds in two months, with 10 pounds to go in the next two months) for you, and you're probably looking good :P

Exercise should be a little easier now than it was before!

@RobertCousineau Yes! Now that the weather is warming up, I'm excited to bike with 40 fewer pounds of cargo

@wan I am the wind.

Impressive work over the last week!

@RobertCousineau thank you!

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 85% order

Pushing to 85% for more NO incentive. I do think P is lower than this

bought Ṁ33 of YES

I set a limit order for 1000 at 75%

edit: thank you for the NO bets, adding another 1000