By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?
88%
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Resolves yes if, between January 2024 and January 2030, there is a greater number of meta-analysis papers published in peer-reviewed academic journals concluding that insecticide-treated bed nets (such as those provided by The Against Malaria Foundation and recommended by Givewell) have a net-positive overall impact on humans and animals (wellbeing, not just biodiverisity) than those concluding against.

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>greater number of meta-analysis papers published in peer-reviewed academic journals concluding that insecticide-treated bed nets (such as those provided by The Against Malaria Foundation and recommended by Givewell) have a net-positive overall impact on humans and animals (wellbeing, not just biodiverisity) than those concluding against

Weird definition of "consensus"

predicts NO

@AAh is there a better term for this? I considered democratic majority but that sounds like there'd be a formal vote rather than just independent publications.

@TheAllMemeingEye "will there be more strong evidence" or something?

predicts NO

@AAh ok I've slightly updated the title

Could you link an example paper against this conclusion?

predicts NO

@YoniPeles This was inspired by the following bounty

It includes a screenshot of a paper in Environmental Health Perspectives that appears to be arguing against bednets. However, this is not a meta-analysis. I expect those may possibly come within the next few years if there are multiple replicating papers and/or additional objections to bednets raised.

predicts NO

@YoniPeles While not a rigorous scientific study, this Brian Tomasik essay is the only other resource I'm aware of that tries to answer the question from an animal welfare perspective https://reducing-suffering.org/malaria-foundation-reduce-invertebrate-suffering/

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