The e/acc people are coming for the bed nets now:

1k mana bounty for creating a high quality market such that you can roughly read the market probability as "is donating to AMF a good idea", and such that it resolves based on evidence we are likely to obtain in the future. The criteria would ideally rely on evidence both the e/acc people and the GiveWell people would be likely to find convincing.

Note I awarded 300 mana so far. Bounty is still open, so please take my response to the first submission into account if you have a go at it:

hmm, not sure I like "number of meta-analysis papers" as a metric of consensus (both because quantity is not necessarily a good indicator of quality and because the 

number of such analyses might be very low

). I also don't really expect such analyses to make strong claims about "net-positive overall impact on humans and animals", so there's a significant 

risk of the resolution being fairly subjective.

 I'd also prefer conditions that allow the market to 

resolve as soon as possible given enough evidence

Other consideration: the market should probably capture the state of things right now. That is, if bed nets end up being good because of future improvements but current methods are harmful, the market should count this as a failure for team GiveWell.