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MANIFOLD
Will there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025?
37
Ṁ1kṀ5.8k
Dec 1
6%
chance

Resolves based on the number in the WHO World malaria report. https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports In 2020 the number was 627 000.
2021: 619 000

  • Update 2026-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market will resolve based on the 2026 WHO World Malaria Report (covering 2025 data), as the report typically appears late in the year.

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filled a Ṁ30 NO at 1.0% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 1%. WHO's latest count was 610,000 malaria deaths in 2024. Getting under 500k in 2025 needs an 18% fall, almost three times the largest one-year drop on record, in a year of aid cuts and resurgence. New child cause-of-death estimates also point to flat or rising deaths.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

resolves no World malaria report 2025

World malaria report 2025
Each year, WHO’s World malaria report provides a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of trends in malaria control and elimination across the globe
bought Ṁ13 NO

@strutheo ah might need to wait for 2026 report

@strutheo yes, it seems to usually show up quite late in the year.

2025? Or 2023? I see this market is set to end at the close of the year?

predictedYES

@shankypanky 2025. I started this before I really had come to grips with how manifold worked. Wanted do make it more of a "prediction competition" that's why I thought it would be more fun to have people predict a few years in advance.

Changing the resolution date now.

related:

Some nice charts: https://ourworldindata.org/malaria

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