Will malaria be erradicated before 2030?
19
56
410
2029
9%
chance

Resolves yes in the case that the WHO or an equivalent organization declares that malaria has been erradicated before 2030.

Close date updated to 2029-12-30 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'd bet this to under 5% if it didn't lock up mana for a few months to do so. Malaria's still so common that this is not fully doable in that timeframe.

bought Ṁ45 of NO

We still haven't eradicated polio. I don't see a path to eradicating malaria in 7 years.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

Despite there being a vaccine available, I don't think that they'll be able to get it sufficiently rolled out to eradicate malaria by 2030. I'm also doubtful that anyone will successfully carry out a mosquito gene drive in the wild, across all of the places that have malaria, by then. There are a lot of countries with malaria to cover in the next seven years.