Will any of the GiveWell top recommended charities be Malaria-related at the end of 2030?
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What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?
Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?
12% chance
Will a country in sub-Saharan Africa be declared malaria-free by the WHO before 2030?
35% chance
Will malaria be erradicated before 2030?
11% chance
Will the Against Malaria Foundation reach $1 billion raised by the end of 2026?
21% chance
Will there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025?
18% chance
Will malaria-carrying mosquitos be wiped out before the year 2030?
8% chance
Will the WHO achieve its goal to eradicate malaria in 30 countries by 2030?
36% chance
Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030?
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Which of GiveWell's top charity areas will be demoted first?
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I think we'll have defeated malaria by then. No more need for anti-malaria charity.

@NathanHelmBurger The trend line in the data does not suggest there will be no need for malaria charity in 2030. https://ourworldindata.org/malaria

@DismalScientist Climate change might also mean that malaria can spread in previously non-malarious regions

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People are also trading

What will be the next program to be added to GiveWell's top charities list?
Will Malaria be eradicated in humans before 2030?
12% chance
Will a country in sub-Saharan Africa be declared malaria-free by the WHO before 2030?
35% chance
Will malaria be erradicated before 2030?
11% chance
Will the Against Malaria Foundation reach $1 billion raised by the end of 2026?
21% chance
Will there be fewer than 500 000 malaria deaths worldwide in 2025?
18% chance
Will malaria-carrying mosquitos be wiped out before the year 2030?
8% chance
Will the WHO achieve its goal to eradicate malaria in 30 countries by 2030?
36% chance
Will a global initiative eradicate malaria worldwide by 2030?
15% chance
Which of GiveWell's top charity areas will be demoted first?
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