Update 2026-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Win" means the PM after the next election is a member of the Labour party (not necessarily a majority).

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 25% chance (7 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).

If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?

[ACX 2026] Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?

+11% 1d63% chance

Will Keir Starmer resign in 2026?

+10% 1d55% chance

Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer?

If Labour loses over 1000 council seats in the 2026 local elections, will Starmer cease to be PM in 2026?

+13% 1d62% chance

If Keir Starmer is out as UK PM in 2026, will he…..?

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

15% chance

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

29% chance

Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?

10% chance

If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?

If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour?

40% chance