The 2026 local elections are upcoming! ~5000 councillors in local councils are going to be up for election, 2000 of whom are currently members of the Labour Party. It's possible that this will be an indicator of whether the Labour Party is actually doing okay, or if they need to try a different strategy.

The reason for the condition is to try to make the market causal on Starmer leaving, by screening off the evidential correlation that Starmer is more likely to stay on if Labour is doing well.

The complement conditional on Starmer staying is

This resolves N/A if Labour doesn't lose over 1000 council seats (either it loses less than 1000 seats, or it gains seats), or if Starmer doesn't leave in 2026.