If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
29
1kṀ31k
2028
76%
chance

N/A if Labour do not win at least half the seats in the 2024 GE.

Subject to no N/A, it’s “yes” if Starmer is PM on 1st January 2028 and “no” otherwise.

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2mo

The Diego atoll is hill Starmer is going to die on, he is the worst politician ever, truly amazing political malpractice

3mo

@DonutThrow shorting Keir like crazy 😂

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 70% order4mo

This market is currently saying there’s about a 10% chance of an election before this closes. Do people really think there’s a 20%+ chance that Labour oust Starmer for some other reason before then?

bought Ṁ300 YES4mo

@Noit I think @DonutThrow must have inside info 👀

4mo

@Fion The Tories cycled through Boris, Truss and Sunak. Why wouldn't Labour replace a deeply unpopular PM who has no plan or capacity to reverse his slide?

4mo

@DonutThrow the Tories had a smaller parliamentary majority, which I think makes it easier to remove the PM. Also, Johnson and Truss both had specific crises that resulted in their ousting. I reckon Starmer is a more mature, risk averse person than both of them.

But you have a point. These do feel like less stable times than the old days.

@Fion When it becomes obvious that Starmer's unpopularity is permanent there is no reason to keep him. Right now there is hope he can bounce back, in 9 months it will be obvious that he is not just unpopular but unlikeable.IMO ofc

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