Resolution criteria

The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029. This market resolves YES if Keir Starmer is reelected as Prime Minister following the 2029 general election.

Background

The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer, but with the smallest share of the electoral vote of any majority government since record-keeping of the popular vote began in 1830. The Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak lost 251 seats and suffered their worst ever defeat, ending their 14-year tenure as the primary governing party. Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, came third in the share of the vote in the 2024 election and had MPs elected to the Commons for the first time. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, led by Ed Davey, made significant gains especially in seat terms to reach their highest number of seats since (as their predecessor Liberal Party) the 1920s.

Considerations

As of 12 March 2026, Labour has experienced significant by-election losses, including a Reform UK victory overturning a 14,696-vote majority and a historic Green Party victory in Gorton and Denton, both described as major blows to the Labour government under Keir Starmer. The scale of the Labour win also conceals several vulnerabilities, not least the record low 33.7% vote share that Starmer's Labour party won, and the low voter turnout of 59.7%.

This description was generated by AI.