Let's play a variation on poker! Like all the decent games of poker, this will be a lot about leveraging luck with strategy and mind games; a perfect match for a place about predictions imo.
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets, but everyone can participate and bet even if they don't buy a hand. See "How It Works" below for more info.
This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go.
This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that.
Current Status
The River. 4 players left, no more resurrections or late joining. 25% to advance.
8 of spades, 10 of clubs, 6 of hearts, King of clubs, 2 of spades
Public Knowledge Cards
No longer in the game:
2 of diamonds
7 of clubs
4 of spades
The Audience
Eliminated in the Deal, then resurrected (and eliminated again!) in the Turn!
King of hearts, 5 of diamonds
Cheats
In this hand players and audience members can pay to do "cheats".
Cheats can be bought by adding a subsidy in the current betting round and commenting what cheat you'd like or sending me a managram with the same info, and all cheats count towards earning an extra tournament point for the hand, which is earned at 100 mana spent towards the prize pool. I'll respond with the answer privately, if it involves cards. Managrams will be added to a prize pool given to the winner(s) at the end.
I will try to be timely in granting your cheat, but may take up to 12 hours to respond (so plan your cheats accordingly).
Menu ~
50 mana - call a specific card and ask me if it's in the game ('yes' if it's in the flop/turn/river or in a player's current hand, even if eliminated; otherwise 'no' in all other cases)
50 mana - pair with another player, steal 25% of their resolution percent if they win, give them 25% of yours if you win. each player can be in one pair
No longer available:
50 mana - replace a chosen card in your hand, get a random new one; your old card will be declared publicly. NONE of this cheat left
75 mana + adding yourself to the list - join late, immediate upon purchase and declaration (I'll try to get your hand to you as soon as I can). note: there's only one late joiner hand! cannot be purchased once we reach the River
100 mana - resurrect your hand after folding, immediate upon purchase and declaration; resurrected hands only get half of resolution (other half spread out; so if they win resurrectee gets 50% while 2nd place gets 50%, in 2-way split resurrectee gets 25% other gets 75%, modified further by pairings, etc.), but still counts for full tourney points; cannot be purchased once we reach the River. more notes:
anyone can resurrect the Audience
multiple players can be resurrected, and multiple times if desired. all such use the "(Resurrected)" resolution in whichever questions their individual name(s) are not listed
How It Works
The game has started!
You can get a hand here by adding yourself to the list plus 75 subsidy and claiming the late joiner hand.before the game starts by paying the subsidy to add yourself to the list.Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents!
After a couple of days, I'll kick off the game with the first of the rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River). I will close each of the rounds early at an unannounced time. I've used a generator to create the close times, and all are after 14:00 PT.
( CHAOS ) Each player who is at 10%/15%/20%/25% (Deal/Flop/Turn/River) or more in the round question at close advances to the next, whether or not they even bet on themselves. We'll go by what it says in the UI.
The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it:
is publicly visible
was bought in by me
grants tourney points to its biggest supporter (if it earns any)
The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally.
If two or more players stick it out to the end I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner(s), and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly.
If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who had the highest valuation in the previous round.
This hand is the final part of a short tournament series. There are several ways to score points in the tournament (even if you don't get a hand).
As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for very mismatched bets by players, so feel free to jump in even if you're intimidated by a whale in the water! They can do their thing, profit by playing market dynamics, and you can still come out on top :) Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy!
As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor except with official cheats. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined.
Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility, and they'll count for the tournament!
Side markets:
Will any player earn 8 or more tournament points during Hand 6 of Manifold Plays Poker?NO
Will any player buy 3 or more cheats in Hand 6 of Manifold Plays Poker?YES
Will The Audience make it to the Turn in Hand 6 of Manifold Plays Poker?YES
(Manifold Plays Poker, Hand 6) Will Jason get a pair of aces on the deal for the third time?NO
(Manifold plays poker, hand 6) Will winning hand be better than a pair?YES
(Manifold plays poker, hand 6) When will the first cheat be requested?
(Manifold plays poker, hand 6) How many players will employ cheats?
(Manifold plays poker, hand 6) How many cheats will the winner employ?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ268 | |
| 2 | Ṁ214 | |
| 3 | Ṁ115 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?