Recently we've had users like Levi Finklestein and Isaac King cause a stir and a bunch of spin out markets. Before I got here, it sounds like Mark Ingraham and Spindle also were dramatic personalities in their own rights.
It seems we've developed a full gossip cycle where those who are the most outspoken are also likely to find themselves having said too much or gotten more of the spotlight than they'd like. But we're still a pretty small community, so we don't have the rapid cycles of, say, Twitter.
How long until our gaze falls upon another of our ranks?
Resolves:
NO if it's under a week before a bunch of new markets and conversations are built around a new person
YES if we don't get caught up in a new drama of our own for 90 days
Otherwise, percent as days from market creation, June 18 (notably cannot resolve between 1-6% or 91-99% due to YES and NO conditions)
The intent of the market may be clear but I don't have perfect criteria for intense scrutiny, so please feel free to make actionable, measurable suggestions for resolutions here for discussion. Otherwise I will resolve according to my own subjective determination.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ175 | |
| 2 | Ṁ112 | |
| 3 | Ṁ90 | |
| 4 | Ṁ57 | |
| 5 | Ṁ48 |
People are also trading
@Joshua the problem is that my own markets /Stralor/will-anyone-have-an-orgy-at-manifes and /Stralor/if-an-orgy-happens-will-it-involve also pissed SG off for some reason and were part of his cited reasoning for Spicyfest and NSFW. If anything, SG is the main character of the story but most people don't care
@oh It's not just tagging: The tag is (either is, or planned to be) blocked by users by default, removed from Manifest group, deemphasized in the feed, and unlisted so it's hard to find in search and doesn't count for leagues.
@oh I get into it a bit here (issues of systematic bias, risks of harm to vulnerable people): /Stralor/if-i-ask-aella-at-manifest-about-ma
but I'd add that this is a gambling website with a long history of support for belligerence. violence, death, crime, etc. are not counted into NSFW, but earnest questions about sex related topics are. and why is any of it NSFW when there aren't graphical depictions or particularly caustic language? these questions are easily related to the content of news articles, which rightly don't have the same restrictions and censorship
@inerati I'm gonna need more than a single market's shenanigans to resolve this. I didn't do it for Catnee with Leviathan and Behemoth and that caused more ripples. Where's the outrage? Where are the character assassinations?
Fair call, but in case you haven't seen there is... definitely more than a single market's shenanigans. That Iris twitter follower one is minor.
The first was the medlock bet:
And then Dan made the Rationalussy market:
Which I believe may have been the two biggest payouts this month. Mira is now probably going to have more mana earned than Marcus.
Semiotic lost 20K, is now bottom of masters, and said he was taking a break from the site. The definition of "non-predictive markets" might now change:
I've sold my no shares so now I'm just being Liz's lawyer.
@Joshua yeah, all my examples are unfortunately high. Isaac ragequit after funding and kingmaking many of today's whales, Mark played alt-ban whack-a-mole for months, Spindle was the OG chaos sower.
It hasn't been asked, but, to be clear, the next main character can't be one of the past main characters. I'm mentioning this because of recent activity in:
https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-levi-hmys-be-fined-by-manifold?r=U3RyYWxvcg
