Who will own Manifold at the end of 2024?
Dec 31, 2024
M$241 bet
I'll resolve this market to the proportional equity distribution in our C Corporation at the end of 2024. FWIW Manifold's current cap table, at a $22M valuation, looks like: ~16% to all investors (see http://bit.ly/manifold-seed ) ~16.8% to the employee option pool ~22.4% to each founder (Austin, Stephen, James)
Austin
Austin answered
Founders (Austin, Stephen, James)
47%
Austin
Austin answered
Employees
17%
Austin
Austin answered
Other investors
5%
Austin
Austin answered
FTX
5%
Austin
Austin answered
The public (eg in an IPO)
3%
Austin
Austin answered
Stripe
1.4%
Austin
Austin answered
Elon Musk
1.4%
DevanshPandey
Devansh Pandey
0.8%
Austin
Austin answered
Polymarket
0.7%
SG
S G answered
Kalshi
0.7%
Austin
Austin answered
Google
0.7%
Add your answer
Austin
Founders (Austin, Stephen, James)
47%
Austin
Employees
17%
DavidChee

SirSalty bought M$1018 days ago

Is this one of those markets where the results of the predictions affect the outcome? ;)
Austin
Other investors
5%
Austin
FTX
5%
Austin

Austin bought M$718 days ago

Either Future Fund, or directly
Austin

Austin is betting Founders (...en, James) 18 days ago

(Currently, FTX FF has invested in 7.5% of Manifold, via regrantor Linchuan Zhang)
Austin
The public (eg in an IPO)
3%
Austin
Stripe
1.4%
Austin
Elon Musk
1.4%
DevanshPandey
Devansh Pandey
0.8%
Austin
Polymarket
0.7%
SG
Kalshi
0.7%
Austin
Google
0.7%
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