NFL Week 13 - Prop Bets

5.1kṀ29k

Dec 3

99%

35% or higher Kick Return rate

95%

Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

85%

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

74%

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

73%

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

71%

All Starting Rookie QBs lose

45%

[MNF Only] Pylon knocked over for a successful touchdown

37%

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

33%

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

31%

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

30%

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

28%

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

28%

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

26%

MVP Favorite Changes

24%

Any team scores 40+ points

23%

A 4th and 11+ is converted*

23%

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

22%

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

22%

Any 400 yard passer

19%

Safety Scored

2025-26 NFL Season - Week Thirteen

*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
- Favorite based on DraftKings closing line
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
- Based on closing DraftKings lines
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
- If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season
- Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)
- Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)
Fake Punt Attempt
- If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
- The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout
- Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases
  - No Injury
  - If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)
  - Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
- Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs
Fat Guy Touchdown
- A player that would be considered fat scores a TD
- All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)
  - Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)
- Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)
A 4th and 11+ is converted
- First downs as the result of penalties do not count
- This logic applies similar to any other prop like this
  - "(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play
Top 5 Super Bowl favorites
- If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%
Will a championship belt change teams?
- There are unique 3 Championship Belts currently in play
In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds