NFL Week 7 - Prop Bets
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99%
AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back
96%
Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games
11%
Fat Guy Touchdown*
11%
MVP Favorite Changes (Patrick Mahomes)
7%
A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)
6%
Fake Punt
6%
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
5%
At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
4%
2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week
Resolved
YES
Safety Scored
Resolved
YES
Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game
Resolved
YES
Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game
Resolved
YES
Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game
Resolved
YES
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
Resolved
YES
Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 24+ points before halftime
Resolved
YES
Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses
Resolved
YES
A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)
Resolved
YES
Any team scores 40+ points

2025-26 NFL Season - Week Seven

*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications

  • At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose

    • Favorite based on DraftKings closing line

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Based on closing DraftKings lines

  • A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

    • If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season

    • Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)

    • Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)

  • Fake Punt Attempt

    • If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting

  • Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

    • The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout

    • Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases

      • No Injury

      • If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)

      • Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game

  • Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

    • Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs

  • Fat Guy Touchdown

    • A player that would be considered fat scores a TD

    • All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)

      • Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)

  • Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)

    • Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)

  • A 4th and 11+ is converted

    • First downs as the result of penalties do not count

    • This logic applies similar to any other prop like this

      • "(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play

  • Top 5 Super Bowl favorites

    • If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%

  • Will a championship belt change teams?

  • In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds

Add your own props related to Week Two (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Two finishes, but not later than that.

All Weeks:

  • Update 2025-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For "At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose" prop: The creator has confirmed that DraftKings closing line at -1.5 for the Falcons means the Falcons were favored (not SF), which affects the count of favorite losses for Week 7 resolution.

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@ChristopherRandles one of us is very wrong about 4+ favorites losing. I think maybe you pulled opening lines instead of closing lines? I only have 2 losses (steelers and Chargers) + possible Seahawks depending on this evening.

By all means if I'm dumb come steal my mana. If I'm correct though I think its because of the opening v closing line distinction.

@MRME I have no bets on 4+ favorites

@ChristopherRandles Whoops wrong name starting with a C. Sorry!

@CollinMatthews see above.

@MRME

Hmm, I'm seeing Steelers, Jets, Chargers.

The controversy is probably over the Falcons, but I have DraftKings closing at -1.5, as listed in the market as the book I'd go by so unless there is evidence DK was SF favored at close, probably going to resolve NO.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

@StopPunting ah I had the Panthers as favored. But I may have put it in wrong.

I think the concept of "favored" kind of breaks down when it's that close. They have the DK line as Jets -1.5 +105. So the Jets are "favored" by 1.5 points, but the +105 indicates they have less than a 50% chance of covering. On another site (https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/?week=Week7) they have the DK line as Jets +1.5 -130, which would make the Jets the underdog even though it's essentially the same line.

In the old days, they would do PICK when it's this close, meaning the spread and moneyline become the same bet. But nowadays, since they offer every alternate spread anyway, they don't really do PICKs anymore.

@travis yeah agree - I’m old enough to remember pick ‘em too!

@StopPunting ah I see how you are pulling the lines. I still think I technically get away with no here but honestly as close and strict as this is reading I’m not mad if you want to N/A it.

@StopPunting mind resolving some of these before tonight so I can churn some mana?

One day I’ll be rich enough and run out of cool markets to bet on…but that day is not today

bought Ṁ833 YES
reposted

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