NFL Week 4 - Prop Bets

5.1kṀ51k

Oct 1

99%

35% or higher Kick Return rate

99%

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

99%

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games (Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Packers, Lions)

99%

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

48%

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

28%

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

28%

A 4th and 11+ is converted*

18%

Fat Guy Touchdown*

13%

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

12%

A player gets an Octopus

Ejection occurs

Fake Punt

Pick Six

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

Any Double Digit Underdog Wins

Taylor Swift in Attendance to Any Game

1.2%

Any 400 yard passer

1.1%

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

2025-26 NFL Season - Week Four

*** Asterisk Prop Clarifications

At Least 4 Favored Teams Lose
- Favorite based on DraftKings closing line
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
- Based on closing DraftKings lines
A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury
- If consensus the next week is that the player will be out for the season
- Will lean towards "YES" (i.e. if the vibe is the player is 75/25 I will resolve YES)
- Based on my subjective opinion (but feel free to give input)
Fake Punt Attempt
- If a team lines up in punt formation and then snaps the ball with the intention to gain the first down instead of punting
Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game
- The quarterback that started the game is removed due to neither an injury, nor due to a blowout
- Subjective judgement will be used, but generally these fulfilling these three criteria will be required for 99% of cases
  - No Injury
  - If it is the 4th quarter then the game has to be within 16 points (2 possessions)
  - Its not clear that the QB removed from the game will start the next game
Any Double Digit Underdog Wins
- Resolves NO if there are no Double Digit Underdogs
Fat Guy Touchdown
- A player that would be considered fat scores a TD
- All O-linemen, and DTs scoring would count (regardless of how)
  - Reserve the right for other positions if they are fat enough (if you want, ask me a player beforehand)
Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)
- Resolves at 50% for ties, weighted (so if there are two games tied for the top already, and this week adds another, it would resolve at 33%)
A 4th and 11+ is converted
- First downs as the result of penalties do not count
- This logic applies similar to any other prop like this
  - "(no plays)" in the box score do not count as a play
Top 5 Super Bowl favorites
- If there is a tie for 5th (or like 4-6th), this will resolve at 50%
Will a championship belt change teams?
- There are unique 3 Championship Belts currently in play
In general, lines that use betting lines or props will rely on the DraftKings odds

Add your own props related to Week Two (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Two finishes, but not later than that.

All Weeks:

Update 2025-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the prop "2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week", the rate is based only on the offense's 2-point conversion attempts and successes.
- Defensive 2-point conversions (e.g., returns of blocked PATs or returns of failed 2PCs) do not count toward this ratio.

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