Will AI wipe out Shrimp before the year 2030?
Will AI wipe out Shrimp before the year 2030?
19
1kṀ1570
2030
5%
chance

If shrimp are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.

If shrimp were wiped out by AI(s) then this market resolves to YES.

If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.

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predictedNO 1y

For comparison:

Trong boughtṀ74YES

@8 Do you know something we don't?

predictedYES 1y

@LukeHanks Yes, I am singlehandedly programming AI that targets shrimp and only shrimp.

This markets description is inconsistent with the title. If AI is around but some other mechanism makes shrimp go extinct the description implies that it should resolve yes. Can we get a clarification?

1y

@Toby96 True! Clarified that the shrimp wipe out needs to come from AI.

1y

Humans are 0.006% iron by mass while shrimp are 0.003% iron by mass. You can get twice as many steel paperclips from humans than shrimp therefore the AI is more likely to paperclip humans first.

Related:

1y

How will you know if it was AI? How many shrimp? If I keep a single pet shrimp, will I resolve this NO?

If AI pushes our search results and tiktok algorithms to encourage a new wave of shrimp-lovers who then pillage the oceans, will this resolve YES, or NO? How direct does it need to be?

I don't think there is a likely scenario where an AI actually directly does anything that will eliminate shrimp. Is this question more just, "will shrimp exist in 2030?"

1y

@Gen Shrimp atoms can go into making paper clips too. ;)

1y

Do simulated shrimps count?

1y

@NikitaSkovoroda Nope, has to be physical shrimp. Uploads or simulations don’t count!

1y

I will not let AI to wipe out Shrimp!!

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