Asking the real questions.

I like how these are getting progressively stupider lmao

@jeremiahsamroo I'm proud of the one I made yesterday:

@evergreenemily lmao. this is top notch

@jeremiahsamroo And also heavily undervalued! An AI controlled robot attempting to skateboard is a sure thing. Boston dynamics is probably already developing one

Arbitrage:

https://manifold.markets/evergreenemily/will-ai-wipe-out-the-global-populat

Will AI wipe out the global population of trout by 2030?

6% chance. [image]Resolves as expected.

@evergreenemily is AI especially in a position to cause the extinction of trout?

@ShitakiIntaki well with all the fear that if might kill humanity yeh.

@ShitakiIntaki No, but "this will affect the trout population I think" memes and AI doomerism were a funny thing to combine in my head, so I made that market on impulse.

(Also, the prototypical paperclip maximizer would kill all trout as a side effect of turning the entire planet into paperclips, so it's theoretically a thing that could happen. Probably won't, though.)

@evergreenemily It's not an arbitrage - your market is about wiping them out, this market is about wiping them off.

@StevenK ...oh my god, I didn't even realize that. Like...is this market about cleaning them all with robotic arms or something???

@evergreenemily I thought it was a typo at first, but now I think it's a parody of your market

@StevenK Absolute genius if so.

(FWIW, I think "P(AI kills everything, including trout)" is probably higher than "P(AI decides to clean every trout on Earth).")