What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
4
Ṁ140Ṁ118Dec 21
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Similar to this market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
The difference here is I will be resolving this to the % of the result of a poll conducted last week of 2026.
Related markets:
Right now - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-is-manifolds-pdoom-will-resolv
End of 2024 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the
End of 2025 - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-68646ab65a1e
This market - https://manifold.markets/chris/what-will-manifolds-pdoom-be-at-the-7c833accc9b3
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
36% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
7% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
59% chance
What will today's p(doom) be determined to be retrospectively by post singularity simulations?
12% chance
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
22% chance
Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
20% chance
What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance