Will any more MPs defect to Reform UK by the end of April?
May 1

Following three weeks of speculation, Lee Anderson has today defected to Reform UK, giving them their first MP - /SimonGrayson/will-lee-anderson-join-reform-uk

At their joint press conference this morning, Richard Tice (Reform's party leader) has said that he expects more Tory MPs to defect before the next election.

With local elections coming up on 2nd May, will ay MPs from the Conservative Party or any other MPs defect to Reform by the end of April?

  • If any MP defects so that they are sitting as a Reform UK MP, this market will resolve to YES.

  • If any MP resigns their seat or is removed in some other way and registers as the Reform UK candidate for a by-election, this market will resolve to YES

  • If a sitting MP announces that they will be standing in the next General Election as a Reform UK candidate, this market resolves to YES

  • If none of the above have happened by the end of the day on 30th April, the market will resolve to NO

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Christopher Hope of GB News says that Reform UK sources claim the party is in advanced talks with up to 9 Tory MPs:

But both Reform UK and GB News are known to bend the truth from time to time, so maybe we should take this with a pinch of salt!

I think it's very important that both the Tories and Reform run campaigns in every single constituency.

Split the heck out of that vote.

If not by the end of April, will anyone defect by the end of this Parliament?

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