UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK get over 4,000,000 votes?
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Nigel Farage today announced that he will be returning to be the leader of Reform UK and that he will be standing as the candidate for Clacton:
He said in his speech that UKIP got 4 million votes at their peak and that they will get even more votes this time.
Will they get more than 4 million votes?
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I thought that Farage was being ambitious when he started talking about winning 4 million votes, but he's upped the ante and started talking about winning 6 million votes!
Will he hit this higher target?
/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-refor-yaf9owhft4
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
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