MANIFOLD
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats?
110
į¹€1kį¹€24k
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Reform UK win 2 or more seats in the General election on 4 July 2024.

Market context
UK Politics
UK General Election 2024
Reform UK
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Farage has won, giving Reform 2 seats, so resolves YES.

Iā€™m curious as to which seats people think. The only seat reform are polling ahead on is Clacton

Greyhawk boughtį¹€500YES

If you think brexit voters / working class Tories wont pivot into Reform I dont know what to say. They're polling at ~15-20% in a sample of 2k

@Greyhawk Since Farage said he'd be standing, Reform's vote share in the polls has gone up. If this continues, they may well win more than 2 seats.

bought į¹€50 YES

See also: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot

People are also trading

In the next UK general election, Will Reform UK and Restore Britain be top 2 in any seat?
+8% 1d56% chance
How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
205
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
20% chance
Will Reform win the next UK election?
41% chance
Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?
20% chance
How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?
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In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
13% chance
Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election
45% chance
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