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MANIFOLD
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats?
110
Ṁ1kṀ24k
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Reform UK win 2 or more seats in the General election on 4 July 2024.

Market context
UK Politics
Reform UK
UK General Election 2024
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Farage has won, giving Reform 2 seats, so resolves YES.

I’m curious as to which seats people think. The only seat reform are polling ahead on is Clacton

Greyhawk boughtṀ500YES

If you think brexit voters / working class Tories wont pivot into Reform I dont know what to say. They're polling at ~15-20% in a sample of 2k

@Greyhawk Since Farage said he'd be standing, Reform's vote share in the polls has gone up. If this continues, they may well win more than 2 seats.

bought Ṁ50 YES

See also: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot

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