UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats?
110
1kį¹€24k
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Reform UK win 2 or more seats in the General election on 4 July 2024.

UK politics
UK General Election 2024
Reform UK
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Farage has won, giving Reform 2 seats, so resolves YES.

Iā€™m curious as to which seats people think. The only seat reform are polling ahead on is Clacton

bought į¹€500 YES

If you think brexit voters / working class Tories wont pivot into Reform I dont know what to say. They're polling at ~15-20% in a sample of 2k

@Greyhawk Since Farage said he'd be standing, Reform's vote share in the polls has gone up. If this continues, they may well win more than 2 seats.

bought į¹€50 YES

See also: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot

People are also trading

How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
155
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
26% chance
Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?
6.9
Who will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?
18% chance
Will Reform UK top the YouGov voting intention poll at the time of the next UK general election, but lose?
19% chance
If this person is leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election, will the PM be Reform?
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