MANIFOLD
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats?
110
į¹€1kį¹€24k
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Reform UK win 2 or more seats in the General election on 4 July 2024.

Market context
UK Politics
UK General Election 2024
Reform UK
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Farage has won, giving Reform 2 seats, so resolves YES.

Iā€™m curious as to which seats people think. The only seat reform are polling ahead on is Clacton

Greyhawk boughtį¹€500YES

If you think brexit voters / working class Tories wont pivot into Reform I dont know what to say. They're polling at ~15-20% in a sample of 2k

@Greyhawk Since Farage said he'd be standing, Reform's vote share in the polls has gone up. If this continues, they may well win more than 2 seats.

bought į¹€50 YES

See also: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot

People are also trading

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?
13.5
How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?
206
Will Reform win less than 50 seats at the next UK General election?
16% chance
Will Reform win the next UK election?
45% chance
Reform UK won five seats in the 2024 General Election. When will the first by-election be called in one of those seats?
Will Reform win a majority of the seats in the 2026 Senedd election?
7% chance
Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
10% chance
Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election
61% chance
In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
Who will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?
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