Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
14
Ṁ1kṀ1.8k
Dec 17
10%
chance

Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025. However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure. How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?

Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December). Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.

This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%

Market context
UK politics
UK
Reform UK
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Reform listed today at 26%, down from 29% at the start of the year. Maybe a response to the bigger Tory defections?

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