Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
8
1kṀ654Dec 17
18%
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Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025. However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure. How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?
Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December). Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.
This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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