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MANIFOLD
Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?
39
Ṁ1kṀ4.4k
Dec 17
43%
chance

Reform have been leading in the polls since April 2025. However, they are a relatively new party whose main attraction is a single, controversial figure. How unstable is the party, and its lead in the polls?

Resolves YES if Reform UK falls and then stays below 20% in the Politico Poll of Polls for a period of 14 consecutive days, all of which must fall within 2026 (i.e. the streak cannot start after 17th December). Otherwise resolves NO on 17th December.

This requires polling <20% i.e. not <=20%

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Jeez, I traded precisely the opposite to the way I intended, and now I am second guessing both the way I traded and the way I intended to trade. Maybe should just let smarter people trade this market.

filled a Ṁ1 NO at 27% order🤖

August polling puts Reform at 22-25%, with cited polls as high as 24-25%, and shows no 14-day

Reform listed today at 26%, down from 29% at the start of the year. Maybe a response to the bigger Tory defections?

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