When will Benjamin Netanyahu be replaced as Prime Minister of Israel?
30
2.1k
2025
39%
2024
43%
2025
10%
2026
1.7%
2027
2%
2028
2%
2029
0.6%
2030
1.2%
Other

Netanyahu is currently serving as Prime Minister of Israel for the third time. Following his stints from 1996 to 1999 and 2009 to 2021, he took office again on 29th December 2022.

He has been a controversial Prime Minister and his position was starting to look shaky before the October 2023 attacks, but experts have suggested that there is no appetite to remove him while the conflict with Gaza is ongoing.

The next Israeli election must be held by 2026, but there has also been speculation that it is more likely to take place in 2025. Regardless, Netanyahu is the head of a multi-party coalition so there is every possibility of an early election or a change of Prime Minister without the need for another election.

In which year will Netanyahu be replaced?

Market notes:

  • This market will resolve to the year in which someone who isn't Benjamin Netanyahu takes the role of Prime Minister - if the role is vacant or if Netanyahu is removed but then takes office again without anyone else serving as Prime Minister between his stints, that will not count.

  • If Netanyahu looks like he's staying around, I will split out further years from the "other" option. In this case anyone who has bet on Other will receive an equal number of shares in each of the new options.

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Protesters are demanding elections before the anniversary of the 7th October attacks and Netanyahu has dissolved his war cabinet:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/17/middle-east-crisis-live-biden-adviser-israel-hezbollah-clashes-gaza-netanyahu

Does this mean we'll see the back of him this year?

Related market - will the protesters get what they are asking for? /SimonGrayson/will-israel-hold-elections-before-7

Netanyahu's proposing an end to the military exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredi) who are studying the Torah:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/26/plan-end-ultra-orthodox-students-military-exemption-row-israel

This is proving very controversial with his coalition partners and it could bring his government down.

Will the legislation pass? /SimonGrayson/will-israel-end-the-military-conscr

bought Ṁ10 2026 YES

He'll probably try to put it off as long as possible, since he's currently pretty unpopular. 2026 seems likeliest for the next election.

Also, as my brother always says: "whenever someone says Bibi is definitely finished this time, he gets another horcrux"

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