Will Ultra-Orthodox Jews be drafted April 1st and will that bring down Netanyahu's coalition?
Ultra-Orthodox drafted on April 1st, Netanyahu's coalition stays intact
Ultra-Orthodox drafted on April 1st, Netanyahu's coalition breaks down
Drafting Ultra-Orthodox postponed temporarily by High Court
Ultra-Orthodox permanently exempted by legislative resolution, Netanyahu's coalition breaks down
Drafting Ultra-Orthodox postponed temporarily by legislative resolution, Netanyahu's coalition stays intact
Drafting Ultra-Orthodox postponed temporarily by legislative resolution, Netanyahu's coalition breaks down

"In 2017 the High Court struck down legislation allowing the blanket exemption of Haredi men from military service as discriminatory, and gave the government one year to pass new legislation that would boost levels of ultra-Orthodox military enlistment. Due to numerous elections that occurred in the interim, it has since given the state multiple extensions to that deadline.

Since the law that the High Court struck down could not itself be extended beyond June 2023, the current cabinet passed a government resolution that month to legally enable the military not to draft Haredi men until the end of March 2024, in order to give the government time to formulate a new arrangement for ultra-Orthodox military exemptions that would comply with the High Court’s 2017 ruling." https://www.timesofisrael.com/ag-says-haredim-face-military-draft-if-no-legislation-by-april-seeks-deadline-extension/

"Recent polls show that Israeli Jews—including majorities on the political right and center right—now overwhelmingly oppose blanket Haredi exemptions. A February survey found that an astonishing 73 percent were against exemptions—up 11 points from November. A poll released this week similarly found that 73 percent of Israeli Jews, including a majority of people who voted for the Netanyahu government, oppose the billion-shekel subsidies to Haredi institutions that are included in the government’s current budget proposal.

With the public incensed at what many see as Haredi privilege, Netanyahu is facing revolt within his ranks. Most notably, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has publicly called for an end to the exemptions and said he will not support any legislation on the matter that is not also approved by Benny Gantz, a centrist opposition lawmaker and rival to Netanyahu who sits in the country’s war cabinet. But any Haredi-draft bill that satisfies Gantz and Gallant is unlikely to satisfy the Haredi parties, who perceive enlistment as a threat to their cloistered way of life. And if no new legislation is passed, the IDF will be required to begin drafting the ultra-Orthodox on April 1." https://archive.is/V7Lgw

Currently, Netanyahu's coalition has 64/120 members of the Knesset, with 18 members of his coalition belonging to "Ultra Orthodox" parties.

Coalition breaking down is anything that leads to the dissolution of the 37th Knesset. https://en.idi.org.il/articles/6111



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bought Ṁ10 Ultra-Orthodox draft... YES

@HariSeldona7ac Howare you going to operationalize Netanyahu's coalition breaking down. Is there a deadline? What happens if the coalition breaks down due to a variety of reasons, which potentially includes this?

What counts as "bringing down Netanyahu's coalition"? If shas/UTJ leave, the government might have a majority with Blue and White, but the original, pre war cabinet doesn't

@aperson1b2d as stated in the description, any of the various methods that leads to a dissolution of the Knesset

bought Ṁ30 Ultra-Orthodox draft... YES

"Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara told the Defense Ministry and Education Ministry Sunday that the process of drafting members of the ultra-Orthodox community into the army must begin the next day [...] “Beginning April 1, 2024, there will be no source of authority for a blanket exemption from military conscription for yeshiva students, and the defense establishment must act to draft them into military service in accordance with the law,” wrote Baharav-Miara, in a letter first published by Channel 13 news."


@Shump According to the supreme court ruling you can read here https://www.israelhayom.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/28/28/23061980_M32-3.docx the injuction only applies to financial aid to Yeshivah "הבקשה למתן צו ביניים מתייחסת אך להעברות כספים שנעשות מכוח "מבחנים לחלוקת כספים לצורך תמיכה של משרד החינוך במוסדות תורניים – לימוד ופעולות""
Not actually implementing the draft, If I understand it correctly....

bought Ṁ10 Drafting Ultra-Ortho... YES

Netanyahu requested a 30 day extension from the supreme court. No legislative action expected in the coming days. Now it's a question of whether the court will approve the extension, and if they don't, will that cause a collapse of the coalition

@Shump I'd like to hear your side of the story, as far as I can tell, the supreme court ruling only affects financial aid to yeshivahs and there is no draft in place yet.

Jerusalem Post article: https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-794176

Full Ruling: https://www.israelhayom.co.il/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/28/28/23061980_M32-3.docx

@FergusArgyll As you can read in the article, the law that exemted the Ultra Orthodox from conscription expired last year. So technically, they should already be conscripted. However, until April 1st, there were no sanctions for draft dodging in place. In April 1st, we will have an enforced law with sanctions for recruiting the Ultra-orthodox. In addition, the Legal Advisor to the government, who represents the government, said that they will start preparing to draft Ultra Orthodox from April 1st. If this doesn't count, then there could never have been any scenario that would count for that answer.

@Shump The Legal counsel said they should start drafting, not they will.
how do you think it should resolve if this comes to pass?
"בתשובתה מבהירה היועמ"שית כי גם גם אם שר הביטחון והצבא לא ישלחו צווי גיוס לבני הישיבות - עדיין לא יהיה ניתן להעביר בגינם כספים לישיבות. זאת בניגוד למחשבה כי שלילת הכספים תהיה רק על מי שיוגדר עריק"
(google- "In her answer, the ombudsman clarifies that even if the Minister of Defense and the Army do not send conscription orders to the Yeshiva members - it will still not be possible to transfer money to the Yeshiva for them.")

to me, that is clearly "no ultra orthodox jews were drafted". Yes, maybe they should, but they didn't.

The scenario I was betting against was a law that would be passed that forced conscription before april 1st, possible but didn't happen...

@FergusArgyll Oh, it's like the other market about this. Seems like you, like other people outside of Israel got confused about the set of possible outcomes here and about the govvernment's goals. There was never any possibility of a law that would actually draft a large number of ultra-orthodox. The scenario for that was always that the government might not be able to come to an agreement. So I bet on that option thinking that is what you meant, especially since there is no other option about the scenario where the government can't agree by the deadline and the deadline get extended.

I still think that starting to enforce the law counts as "Ultra-Orthodox being drafted", but if you still don't think so, then what would you do? Resolve NO on all? If you do, can you please at least give me a heads up or a refund? I think this was poorly defined.

Oh, and about that statement. Basically what happens now is that the government is trying to figure out if and how they can circumvent the court's orders, and the legal advisor to the government (not ombudsman, that's a terrible translation) is clarifying that no, they can't use such a loophole. The situation so far has stayed as before - Ultra-Orthodox get recruited on a voluntary basis, and there's no sanctions to them dodging the draft. This is going to change now.


I think we're gonna need some sort of fair arbitration, I don't know how this works exactly, especially considering the market creator seems AWOL.
Just to state my case:
Question is "Ultra Orthodox drafted", I think that should resolve on actual drafting, not whether there are financial penalties instituted.
In my opinion, it should resolve yes if a valid source says IDF was ordered to start drafting yeshiva students beginning April 1st AND (I'm honestly not sure maybe OR, the market is very unclear) Notices of conscription (or whatever they're called) were served to yeshivah students on or before April 1st.

I'm open to an N/A resolution (refund everyone) if this seems too messy to untangle.

I think the way to get arbitration started is by reporting the market. If you are okay with this I will report and write the following: "Market creator seems to be AWOL, @Shump and I have been arguing about resolution/ resolution criteria. Either way, we both agree this can be resolved by Tuesday and doesn't have to wait till 2025. See the comments section. I am available for further questions"

How does that sound? you can report the same.

@FergusArgyll @Shump The market resolves after Tuesday because the political processes that could lead to the dissolution of the Knesset can take time.

My understanding of what will happen tomorrow is that the Haredim will be legally obligated to be drafted, but any actual enforcement of the draft and enrollment of Haredim in the IDF won't come till after more court decisions in May or later.


sold Ṁ80 Ultra-Orthodox draft... NO

@HariSeldona7ac And? how would that resolve?

@HariSeldona7ac why does this market close next year? we should find out in 3 days, no?

Does the knesset have to be completely dissolved for this to resolve? Or just the process to start? @HariSeldona7ac

What will this resolve to in the following two scenarios:

  1. A law is made, but is later struck down by the supreme court.

  2. The government asks the supreme court for a delay, with the excuse that they are in the process of legislative action, and the delay is granted.


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