Will an unmanned aerial attack on the U.S., launched from outside U.S. borders and occuring within U.S. borders, be succesfully attempted this year? For the purposes of resolution, "success" is defined without regard to the intention of the attack: at least $1 million in direct damages, or at least one life lost in the attack.
For context, read the current news and this not-so-current article on the U.S. military's underestimation of drones: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40054/adversary-drones-are-spying-on-the-u-s-and-the-pentagon-acts-like-theyre-ufos
I will not be betting in this market, so that I can deal with extreme edge cases appropriately. See comments for a few examples. The main one is that if it's obvious that the event was not a deliberate attack, it won't count towards a YES resolution.
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@JamesBills Need reports of damage > $1 million, which seems unlikely. Also need the drone to come from out of U.S. borders.
Similar flavored edge case: a drone delaying wildfire fighting. I'll edit something into the description to make it clear that bizarre obviously-not-an-"attack" cases will not yield a YES resolution.