A new international treaty on autonomous weapon systems by 2025-03-23?
7
146
Ṁ170
2025
39%
chance

Background: https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/news/states-make-progress-on-policy-at-un-discussions-as-momentum-builds-towards-treaty-on-aws/

States engaged in focused discussions at the GGE, demonstrating that progress towards a new international treaty on AWS is possible.

Resolves YES if a new international treaty on autonomous weapon systems is signed by states representing at least 50% of the human population.

Resolves NO if such a treaty is not signed by 2025-03-23.

Mar 23, 10:18pm: Aa new international treaty on autonomous weapon systems by 2025-03-23? → A new international treaty on autonomous weapon systems by 2025-03-23?

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predicts NO

This would also contradict other treaties. US is not signatory to cluster munitions. Are cluster bombs an autonomous weapon?

@MarkIngraham I specifically asked about new treaties to avoid questions about whether existing treaties on land mines and cluster bombs would count.

What treaty contradictions do you have in mind?

predicts NO

@MartinRandall SADARM uses a magnet to find tanks and kill them. Is that autonomous? Is a reaper on autopilot autonomous? A cruise missile?

predicts NO

@MartinRandall anything where a machine makes a decision as part of a kill chain is autonomous and that's a huge treaty.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

No African countries are invited so that breaks the population criteria. It's likely some rich countries will regulate.

@MarkIngraham That's a good point. I was thinking that non-participating countries with no autonomous weapons capabilities would be happy to sign up, but that isn't always the case with such treaties.

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