Will a civilian be killed by an individually-targeted, AI-guided, kamikaze aerial drone by the end of 2024?
17
1kṀ1307resolved Mar 29
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://futureoflife.org/video/slaughterbots/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STM_Kargu
Must be capable of killing one person in a crowd, in a person-sized attack.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ157 | |
| 2 | Ṁ40 | |
| 3 | Ṁ13 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
People are also trading
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
24% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
29% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
14% chance
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
27% chance
Will someone kill an AI researcher to save the world by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will an AI system be judged to have killed a human on its own initiative and for no other purpose by 2030?
26% chance
Will a fully autonomous military drone cost less than $1000 by 2028?
64% chance
Will the U.S. military be defeated by a rogue AI before 2035?
9% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
66% chance