[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
23
2.7kṀ41kJan 2
1.5%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves a Yes if after March 22, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that a terrorist attack using an aerial drone led to at least one injury or death in the United States.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Fatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?
14% chance
Will there be an attack on US civilians committed primarily with drones with >9 casualties before 2031?
56% chance
[Metaculus] Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?
91% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than 9/11 before 2035
34% chance
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
64% chance
Will any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
7% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
7% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
16% chance
"Trojan horse"-like drone attack on US military planes before 2028
20% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030
44% chance