What will be true of the Fortunate Hedgehogs Diamond League cohort?
11
194
640
Jun 3
98.9%
The promotion cutoff will be 15,812 or higher
98.9%
@SaviorofPlant will place in the top 13 and stay in Diamond league
95%
@benshindel will place in the top 3 and promote to Masters league
22%
At least eight users in the cohort will be in Masters League on June 2
14%
The promotion cutoff will break the Manifold record (Ṁ22,047)
3%
The users in the cohort who are promoted to Masters will be the top 3 by profit in all of Diamond League
1%
The cutoff to be demoted to Platinum will be higher than the cutoff to be promoted to Masters in all other cohorts
Resolved
YES
At least three users in the cohort will complain about it in the comments of this market

https://manifold.markets/leagues/12/diamond/fortunate-hedgehogs

My cohort of Diamond League seems to be particularly stacked. This market is a cry for help.

Promotion cutoff = the profit earned by the person in 3rd place in the cohort, demotion cutoff = the profit earned by the person in 13th place.

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HOW AM I JUST NOW LEARNING ABOUT THIS

@Panfilo Could have added some fun questions to this and bet on my journey. Oh well.

@Panfilo It's not quite too late. It's also not quite too late to complain..

The Office gif. While John Krasinski as Jim and Jenna Fischer as Pam sit at their desks in the background, Ed Helms as Andy spins around in his desk chair to wink at us.

bought Ṁ250 At least three users... YES

@snazzlePop These were complaints

@Panfilo about being in the cohort 🧐 ?

bought Ṁ500 At least three users... YES

@Panfilo Just to be unambiguous, could you complain just a little louder?
(perhaps a "this cohort sucks" or similar)

@Stralor Yeah the cohort forgot to bcc me on this market

@Panfilo go chaotic neutral, buy NO and edit the comments to be praising

@ShadowyZephyr Nah then Pat will realize the market is still ranked

@ShadowyZephyr Another cohort member already complained below (and less ambiguously too)

bought Ṁ1 At least three users... NO

@snazzlePop ah, I thought we only had 2

@ShadowyZephyr We're up to 4 if @Panfilo counts. 1. @SaviorofPlant 2. me ( @snazzlePop) 3. @OrbiterVoltron 4. @Panfilo

@snazzlePop oh I thought the market creator doesn't count

@ShadowyZephyr I am in the cohort lol

At least three users in the cohort will complain about it in the comments of this market

@Awex @RemNi @ChrisPrichard @esusatyo @soweliSon @RobertCousineau @SimoneRomeo @Mqrius @PaintspotInfez @OrbiterVoltron @MarkHamill @roma @JoshuaWilkes @RS @PlasmaBallin @SaviorofPlant @FranklinBaldo @Agh @benmanns @Stralor @Emanuele98 @benshindel @Lion @Panfilo

Good day. Welcome to the first (and probably last) installment of the Fortunate Hedgehogs Support Group. Any and all of you are invited to air any grievances you may have about our league. This was a tough season for our cohort. Some of you will be demoting back to Platinum in the next day or so, but in a different cohort with the same mana earned you may have even promoted to Masters instead.

Now is the time to share any complaints, if you wish. This is a safe space.

Movie gif. Billy Crystal as Harry in When Harry Met Sally blinks and calmly offers a box of tissues.

@snazzlePop I didn't know until you pointed it out but since you did I'm kinda annoyed lol. It's somehow still not the most annoying thing that has happened to me regarding manifold this month tho so I'm okay with it. I'll be back in June anyway

@snazzlePop I would be #1 or #2 in every other cohort :/

@snazzlePop Hi y'all, my name is snazzlePop. This is the second consecutive season that I've found myself in a uniquely high-earning cohort. (Y'all are too good at this Manifold thing!) I'm just grateful to not be on the docket for demotion. Here's to hoping for a more equitable cohort next season!

TV gif. Joel McHale as Jeff, Yvette Nicole Brown as Shirley, Danny Pudi as Abed, Donald Glover as Troy, Gillian Jacobs as Britta, Chevy Chase as Pierce in Community all come together in a big group hug inside a classroom.

@snazzlePop Can I complain about being pinged? Can I complain about a grab bag market that's not tagged as grab bag? I have the category blocked for a reason 🙄

The cutoff to be demoted to Platinum will be higher than the cutoff to be promoted to Masters in all other cohorts

is this that it's higher than any one other diamond league or that no other league is higher than it (aka "all other cohorts")? I'd assume the former but slightly ambiguous

@Stralor Oh wow that's extraordinarily poor phrasing. I actually meant the latter. Let me check which way the person betting on that answer interpreted it, can make a new answer for the latter if they interpreted it the same way you did

At least three users in the cohort will complain about it in the comments of this market

This cohort sucks

bought Ṁ1 At least three users... YES

@SaviorofPlant Holy shit

bought Ṁ20 At least eight users... NO

@SaviorofPlant ahaha yes Savior I'm always in stacked cohorts. I'm sorry you had to join the Fun 🫡

bought Ṁ50 At least three users... YES

@SaviorofPlant This cohort sucks.

@Stralor Hey, uh, Pat, could you complain just a little louder, just to make sure we hear you clearly? 😉

@snazzlePop ahaha no I love it. if we can't hack it in the toughest Diamond league, we can't survive in Masters. I don't even bother trying for Masters much anymore tbh. I've been there, got rekt, and now enjoy chilling getting small monthly bonuses

@Stralor I feel similarly — My meager net worth and only occasional market creation can’t compete with the big dogs in Masters.

Nice to see you in the same league again too.

Once again we seem to be in one of the more competitive Diamond cohorts…are you sure you have no grievance to air about that? 😜

@snazzlePop Back when leagues started there was a lot of camaraderie within them. I miss that high energy "let's all do our best" vibe but the closest you'll get is in high-performer Diamond nowadays. Markets like this make it better imo. And cohorts are sorted roughly by fields of interest, so like y'all are my competitors and compatriots. Complain because my interest cohort is kicking ass? Nah 😄