This market lists various opinions I've heard about the proposed Manifold Pivot.

This is a combination market/poll. I've added a few opinions I've heard, and you can add your own too.

Buy YES in an opinion you endorse, buy NO in an opinion you anti-endorse. Each holder of YES is a single vote for YES, each holder of NO is a single vote for NO.

At market close at noon on 5/4, I will tally the votes and resolve each option to the majority position.

More details for those that haven't read the post:

We are working today on a killer feature that will supercharge your forecasts: real cash prizes. Our plan is to enable cash payouts under the sweepstakes model, as used by sites like Fliff and Chumba.

Mana will remain as a purely play-money currency used to bet on markets. But, most markets will payout sweepstakes Prize Points instead of Mana. Prize Points can be either converted back into mana or be redeemed for cash. The sweepstakes model has more restrictions and is importantly different from real-cash betting, but we hope it provides the incentive people need to bring higher quality forecasting to our platform.

The path to enabling cash payouts will be long and uncertain. It’s possible it won’t happen at all. We are working very closely with our lawyers, but it’s likely we won’t be able to roll out payouts for at least another month or two.

• Mana purchase rate

  • The maximum mana purchase rate will change to $1 : M1,000 on May 1st, 2024.

  • Users will be able to cash out to charity under the previous rate of M100 : $1 in the interim period before May 1st (see below).

  • We are temporarily disabling mana purchases under the old rates. We will re-enable purchases at the new rates on May 1st.

• Profit backfill

  • We will backfill profits on users’ profile pages and the site leaderboard to be 10x higher, in line with the mana purchase changes